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VVV Venlo vs Cambuur — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cambuur
Cambuur
11/24/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo31%
×Draw24%
Cambuur45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.35
Cambuur
1.67

Cambuur creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 110 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
Cambuur
1.89

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
Cambuur
1.30

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Cambuur+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Cambuur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
55%
VVV Venlo or Cambuur
76%
Draw or Cambuur
69%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
14%
Cambuur wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
74%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
39%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
15%
Cambuur 1+ goals
81%
Cambuur 2+ goals
50%
Cambuur 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
41%
Cambuur (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Cambuur away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Cambuur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cambuur attack 1.89 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
31%
level
24%
Cambuur scores more
45%

Cambuur at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 1–2 Cambuur

Cambuur beat VVV Venlo 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.