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VVOG vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
1 – 3
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
8/31/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 2Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG30%
×Draw22%
Sparta Nijkerk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.55
Sparta Nijkerk
1.98

Sparta Nijkerk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 97 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
52%
VVOG or Sparta Nijkerk
78%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
70%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
14%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
79%
VVOG 2+ goals
46%
VVOG 3+ goals
20%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
86%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
59%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
39%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VVOG scores more
30%
level
22%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
48%

Sparta Nijkerk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VVOG vs Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat VVOG 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).