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VV Alkmaar W vs ADO Den Haag W — Eredivisie Women 2018

VV Alkmaar W
VV Alkmaar W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
ADO Den Haag W
ADO Den Haag W
12/14/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 15Sportpark AFC '34 (Alkmaar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

VV Alkmaar W30%
×Draw22%
ADO Den Haag W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VV Alkmaar W
1.52
ADO Den Haag W
1.94

ADO Den Haag W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 73 away

creates per match

VV Alkmaar W
1.41
ADO Den Haag W
1.60

allows per match

VV Alkmaar W
2.27
ADO Den Haag W
1.63

finishing

VV Alkmaar W+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VV Alkmaar W ↓

ADO Den Haag W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

VV Alkmaar W or draw
53%
VV Alkmaar W or ADO Den Haag W
78%
Draw or ADO Den Haag W
70%

Winning margin

VV Alkmaar W wins by 2+
14%
ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

VV Alkmaar W 1+ goals
78%
VV Alkmaar W 2+ goals
45%
VV Alkmaar W 3+ goals
20%
ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals
58%
ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VV Alkmaar W (draw refunded)
39%
ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VV Alkmaar W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.27 · 41 matches

ADO Den Haag W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VV Alkmaar W attack 1.41 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.60 + VV Alkmaar W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VV Alkmaar W scores more
30%
level
22%
ADO Den Haag W scores more
47%

ADO Den Haag W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ADO Den Haag W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VV Alkmaar W vs ADO Den Haag W

ADO Den Haag W beat VV Alkmaar W 3-2 in Eredivisie Women on December 14, 2018.

The match was played at Sportpark AFC '34 (Alkmaar).