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VSK Århus vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
Preview
11:30
Skive
Skive
9/26/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9
Big match
38%
VSK Århus
model favours
38%26%36%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus38%
×Draw26%
Skive36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.36
Skive
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 85 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Skive
1.36

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Skive
1.39

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
64%
VSK Århus or Skive
74%
Draw or Skive
62%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
18%
Skive wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
74%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
39%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
16%
Skive 1+ goals
73%
Skive 2+ goals
37%
Skive 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
52%
Skive (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Skive away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Skive defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Skive attack 1.36 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

VSK Århus scores more
38%
level
26%
Skive scores more
36%

VSK Århus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Århus
WWLD
Skive
DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VSK Århus vs Skive — Match Preview

VSK Århus face Skive on September 26, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.