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VSK Århus vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
Preview
12:30
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
3/13/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18
50%
VSK Århus
model favours
50%24%26%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus50%
×Draw24%
Nykobing FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.75
Nykobing FC
1.19

VSK Århus creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
74%
VSK Århus or Nykobing FC
76%
Draw or Nykobing FC
50%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
27%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
83%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
52%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
25%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
70%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
66%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

VSK Århus scores more
50%
level
24%
Nykobing FC scores more
26%

VSK Århus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • VSK Århus and Nykobing FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Århus
WWLD
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VSK Århus host Nykobing FC

March 13, 2027: VSK Århus take on Nykobing FC in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.