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VSK Århus vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
Preview
11:30
Naestved
Naestved
10/24/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 13
41%
VSK Århus
model favours
41%26%33%

VSK Århus win just 15% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus41%
×Draw26%
Naestved33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.37
Naestved
1.21

VSK Århus creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Naestved
1.40

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
67%
VSK Århus or Naestved
74%
Draw or Naestved
59%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
19%
Naestved wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
75%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
40%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
16%
Naestved 1+ goals
70%
Naestved 2+ goals
34%
Naestved 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
55%
Naestved (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Naestved attack 1.19 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VSK Århus scores more
41%
level
26%
Naestved scores more
33%

VSK Århus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Århus
WWLD
Naestved
WLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VSK Århus host Naestved

October 24, 2026: VSK Århus take on Naestved in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.