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Vsetín vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Vsetín
Vsetín
PST
13:00
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
3/28/20204. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Round 16Stadion Tyršova ulice (Vsetín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Vsetín58%
×Draw20%
Viktorie Přerov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vsetín
2.18
Viktorie Přerov
1.25

Vsetín creates 74% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 53 away

creates per match

Vsetín
2.02
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Vsetín
1.00
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Vsetín+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vsetín ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vsetín or draw
79%
Vsetín or Viktorie Přerov
80%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
42%

Winning margin

Vsetín wins by 2+
36%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vsetín 1+ goals
89%
Vsetín 2+ goals
64%
Vsetín 3+ goals
37%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
71%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
36%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vsetín (draw refunded)
73%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vsetín at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vsetín attack 2.02 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.18

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Vsetín defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vsetín scores more
58%
level
20%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
21%

Vsetín at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vsetín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vsetín host Viktorie Přerov

March 28, 2020: Vsetín take on Viktorie Přerov in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vsetín host Viktorie Přerov at Stadion Tyršova ulice (Vsetín).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.