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Vreden vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
12/10/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Vreden37%
×Draw23%
ASC Dortmund40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
1.69
ASC Dortmund
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
60%
Vreden or ASC Dortmund
77%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
63%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
19%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
82%
Vreden 2+ goals
50%
Vreden 3+ goals
24%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
83%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
52%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
48%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vreden scores more
37%
level
23%
ASC Dortmund scores more
40%

ASC Dortmund at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Vreden 2–0 ASC Dortmund

Vreden beat ASC Dortmund 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Hamalandstadion in Vreden.