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Vrchovina vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
1 – 4
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
11/9/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Vrchovina45%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
1.72
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.41

Vrchovina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
68%
Vrchovina or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
55%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
24%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
82%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
51%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
25%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
41%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
59%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.72

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vrchovina scores more
45%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
32%

Vrchovina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vrchovina 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.