Vrchovina 3–1 Dolní Benešov: Result & Stats

Vrchovina

FT

3 – 1

Dolní Benešov

8/16/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vrchovina56%

×Draw21%

Dolní Benešov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VrchovinaExpected goals in this matchDolní Benešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.27

Vrchovina

2.09

Dolní Benešov

1.27

Vrchovina creates 65% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 26 away

1.45

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Vrchovina

1.45

Dolní Benešov

1.08

allows per match

Vrchovina

1.45

Dolní Benešov

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Dolní Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw

77%

Vrchovina or Dolní Benešov

79%

Draw or Dolní Benešov

44%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+

34%

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals

88%

Vrchovina 2+ goals

62%

Vrchovina 3+ goals

34%

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

72%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

36%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)

71%

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.09

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vrchovina scores more

56%

level

21%

Dolní Benešov scores more

23%

Vrchovina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff