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VPS vs MyPa — Veikkausliiga 2026

VPS
VPS
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
MyPa
MyPa
7/19/2013VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 20Hietalahden jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VPS70%
×Draw18%
MyPa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
2.38
MyPa
0.91

VPS creates 162% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 4 away

creates per match

VPS
1.50
MyPa
0.50

allows per match

VPS
1.32
MyPa
3.25

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VPS or draw
87%
VPS or MyPa
82%
Draw or MyPa
30%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
47%
MyPa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
91%
VPS 2+ goals
68%
VPS 3+ goals
42%
MyPa 1+ goals
60%
MyPa 2+ goals
23%
MyPa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
85%
MyPa (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.32 · 94 matches

MyPa away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.50 + MyPa defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

MyPa attack 0.50 + VPS defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

VPS scores more
70%
level
18%
MyPa scores more
13%

VPS at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VPS 4 – 1 MyPa

VPS beat MyPa 4-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 19, 2013.

The match was played at Hietalahden jalkapallostadion.