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VPS vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPS
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
6/13/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundKaarlen kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

VPS24%
×Draw22%
HJK Helsinki54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.26
HJK Helsinki
2.00

HJK Helsinki creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

VPS
1.36
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VPS or draw
46%
VPS or HJK Helsinki
78%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
76%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
10%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
72%
VPS 2+ goals
36%
VPS 3+ goals
13%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
86%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
59%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
31%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VPS scores more
24%
level
22%
HJK Helsinki scores more
54%

HJK Helsinki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPS vs HJK Helsinki

VPS and HJK Helsinki drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on June 13, 2022.

The match was played at Kaarlen kenttä in Vaasa.