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VPS vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gnistan
Gnistan
5/12/2021YkkönenYkkönen · Round 2Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPS48%
×Draw23%
Gnistan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.87
Gnistan
1.41

VPS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

creates per match

VPS
1.92
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

VPS
1.24
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VPS or draw
71%
VPS or Gnistan
77%
Draw or Gnistan
52%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
27%
Gnistan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
85%
VPS 2+ goals
56%
VPS 3+ goals
29%
Gnistan 1+ goals
76%
Gnistan 2+ goals
41%
Gnistan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
62%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.92 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Gnistan attack 1.57 + VPS defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VPS scores more
48%
level
23%
Gnistan scores more
29%

VPS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VPS 2 – 0 Gnistan

VPS beat Gnistan 2-0 in Ykkönen on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.