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VPS vs AC Oulu — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
2/8/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Fennia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

VPS32%
×Draw23%
AC Oulu45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.49
AC Oulu
1.81

AC Oulu creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
AC Oulu
2.27

allows per match

VPS
1.36
AC Oulu
1.05

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VPS or draw
55%
VPS or AC Oulu
77%
Draw or AC Oulu
68%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
15%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
77%
VPS 2+ goals
44%
VPS 3+ goals
19%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
84%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
54%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
41%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + AC Oulu defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.49

AC Oulu attack 2.27 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VPS scores more
32%
level
23%
AC Oulu scores more
45%

AC Oulu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPS vs AC Oulu

VPS and AC Oulu drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Fennia Arena in Vaasa.