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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Tavriya — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
PST
00:00
Tavriya
Tavriya
5/6/2020Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka69%
×Draw18%
Tavriya13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
2.31
Tavriya
0.88

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka creates 163% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
3.10
Tavriya
1.26

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.50
Tavriya
1.52

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Tavriya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Tavriya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
87%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Tavriya
82%
Draw or Tavriya
31%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
46%
Tavriya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
90%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
67%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
40%
Tavriya 1+ goals
59%
Tavriya 2+ goals
22%
Tavriya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
84%
Tavriya (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Tavriya away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 3.10 + Tavriya defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tavriya attack 1.26 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
69%
level
18%
Tavriya scores more
13%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Tavriya

May 6, 2020: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka take on Tavriya in Druha Liga - Group B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.