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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Krystal — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
PST
00:00
Krystal
Krystal
3/28/2020Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka66%
×Draw18%
Krystal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
2.38
Krystal
1.05

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka creates 127% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
3.10
Krystal
1.60

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.50
Krystal
1.65

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Krystal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Krystal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
85%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Krystal
82%
Draw or Krystal
34%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
44%
Krystal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
91%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
68%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
42%
Krystal 1+ goals
65%
Krystal 2+ goals
28%
Krystal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
81%
Krystal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Krystal away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 3.10 + Krystal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.38

Krystal attack 1.60 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
66%
level
18%
Krystal scores more
15%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka face Krystal (Druha Liga - Group B)

Druha Liga - Group B returns with VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka hosting Krystal. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.