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Vorwärts-Wacker 04 vs Süderelbe — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Preview
17:00
Süderelbe
Süderelbe
9/18/2026Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 8
59%
Süderelbe
model favours
24%18%59%

Süderelbe have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
85%
over 2.5 goals
80%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vorwärts-Wacker 0424%
×Draw18%
Süderelbe59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.87
Süderelbe
2.92

Süderelbe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.57
Süderelbe
2.83

allows per match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
3.00
Süderelbe
2.17

finishing

Vorwärts-Wacker 04+0.00on par
Süderelbe+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 ↓

Süderelbe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 or draw
41%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 or Süderelbe
82%
Draw or Süderelbe
76%

Winning margin

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 wins by 2+
12%
Süderelbe wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1+ goals
85%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 2+ goals
56%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3+ goals
29%
Süderelbe 1+ goals
94%
Süderelbe 2+ goals
78%
Süderelbe 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 (draw refunded)
29%
Süderelbe (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

Süderelbe away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.57 + Süderelbe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.87

Süderelbe attack 2.83 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 scores more
24%
level
18%
Süderelbe scores more
59%

Süderelbe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Süderelbe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Vorwärts-Wacker 04 sit 18, Süderelbe 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
04
WLLL
Süderelbe
LWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 host Süderelbe

September 18, 2026: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 take on Süderelbe in Oberliga - Hamburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.