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Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
FT
6 – 0
Post
Post
9/27/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 6Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau55%
×Draw20%
Post25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts Brigittenau
2.27
Post
1.50

Vorwärts Brigittenau creates 51% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 43 away

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.74
Post
1.12

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.89
Post
2.79

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw
75%
Vorwärts Brigittenau or Post
80%
Draw or Post
45%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
34%
Post wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
90%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
66%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
39%
Post 1+ goals
78%
Post 2+ goals
44%
Post 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
68%
Post (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.27

Post attack 1.12 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
55%
level
20%
Post scores more
25%

Vorwärts Brigittenau at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vorwärts Brigittenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Post

Vorwärts Brigittenau beat Post 6-0 in Landesliga - Wien on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz WAF Gruabn in Wien.