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Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
CANC
00:00
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
4/19/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 22Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau51%
×Draw21%
Mannswörth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts Brigittenau
2.16
Mannswörth
1.56

Vorwärts Brigittenau creates 38% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.74
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.89
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw
72%
Vorwärts Brigittenau or Mannswörth
79%
Draw or Mannswörth
49%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
30%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
88%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
63%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
36%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
79%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
46%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
65%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
51%
level
21%
Mannswörth scores more
28%

Vorwärts Brigittenau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vorwärts Brigittenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vorwärts Brigittenau face Mannswörth (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Vorwärts Brigittenau hosting Mannswörth. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vorwärts Brigittenau host Mannswörth at Sportplatz WAF Gruabn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.