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Vorwärts Brigittenau vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
CANC
21:00
ASV 13
ASV 13
6/20/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 29Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau55%
×Draw20%
ASV 1325%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts Brigittenau
2.36
ASV 13
1.57

Vorwärts Brigittenau creates 50% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.74
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.89
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw
75%
Vorwärts Brigittenau or ASV 13
80%
Draw or ASV 13
45%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
34%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
90%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
68%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
41%
ASV 13 1+ goals
79%
ASV 13 2+ goals
46%
ASV 13 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
68%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.36

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
55%
level
20%
ASV 13 scores more
25%

Vorwärts Brigittenau at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vorwärts Brigittenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vorwärts Brigittenau face ASV 13 (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Vorwärts Brigittenau hosting ASV 13. Match starts June 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vorwärts Brigittenau host ASV 13 at Sportplatz WAF Gruabn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.