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Voorwaarts vs Notch — Eerste Divisie 2019

Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
FT
1 – 2
Notch
Notch
6/26/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Voorwaarts39%
×Draw24%
Notch37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voorwaarts
1.53
Notch
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

creates per match

Voorwaarts
1.58
Notch
1.76

allows per match

Voorwaarts
1.19
Notch
1.48

finishing

Voorwaarts+0.00on par
Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voorwaarts ↓

Notch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Voorwaarts or draw
63%
Voorwaarts or Notch
76%
Draw or Notch
61%

Winning margin

Voorwaarts wins by 2+
19%
Notch wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Voorwaarts 1+ goals
78%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
45%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
20%
Notch 1+ goals
77%
Notch 2+ goals
43%
Notch 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
51%
Notch (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voorwaarts at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voorwaarts attack 1.58 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.53

Notch attack 1.76 + Voorwaarts defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Voorwaarts scores more
39%
level
24%
Notch scores more
37%

Voorwaarts at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Voorwaarts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Voorwaarts 1–2 Notch

Notch beat Voorwaarts 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.