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Voluntari II vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
11/11/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Voluntari II41%
×Draw22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.84
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 64 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.45

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.06

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
63%
Voluntari II or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
78%
Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
59%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
84%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
55%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
28%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
83%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
52%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
52%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Voluntari II scores more
41%
level
22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
37%

Voluntari II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Voluntari II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voluntari II vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Voluntari II and Recolta Gheorghe Doja drew 1-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Voluntari.