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Volta Redonda vs Anápolis — Serie C 2018

Volta Redonda
Volta Redonda
Preview
22:00
Anápolis
Anápolis
7/25/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 15Raulino de Oliveira
58%
Volta Redonda
model favours
58%25%17%

79% of Anápolis’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volta Redonda58%
×Draw25%
Anápolis17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volta Redonda
1.59
Anápolis
0.73

Volta Redonda creates 118% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Volta Redonda
1.59
Anápolis
0.59

allows per match

Volta Redonda
0.88
Anápolis
1.59

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par
Anápolis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Anápolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw
83%
Volta Redonda or Anápolis
75%
Draw or Anápolis
42%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+
31%
Anápolis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals
80%
Volta Redonda 2+ goals
47%
Volta Redonda 3+ goals
21%
Anápolis 1+ goals
52%
Anápolis 2+ goals
17%
Anápolis 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)
77%
Anápolis (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

Anápolis away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.59 + Anápolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

Anápolis attack 0.59 + Volta Redonda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Volta Redonda scores more
58%
level
25%
Anápolis scores more
17%

Volta Redonda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Volta Redonda score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Volta Redonda’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Anápolis’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Redonda
LDLWL
Anápolis
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volta Redonda face Anápolis (Serie C)

Serie C returns with Volta Redonda hosting Anápolis. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volta Redonda host Anápolis at Raulino de Oliveira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.