Volos NFC 1–0 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

Volos NFC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Levadiakos

J. Añor 12'

4/12/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 3Panthessaliko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Volos NFC47%

×Draw27%

Levadiakos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volos NFCExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Volos NFC

1.44

Levadiakos

1.00

Volos NFC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Volos NFC

1.43

Levadiakos

0.90

allows per match

Volos NFC

1.10

Levadiakos

1.46

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Volos NFC-0.43scores less

Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volos NFC ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Volos NFC or draw

74%

Volos NFC or Levadiakos

73%

Draw or Levadiakos

53%

Winning margin

Volos NFC wins by 2+

23%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Volos NFC 1+ goals

76%

Volos NFC 2+ goals

42%

Volos NFC 3+ goals

18%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

63%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

26%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volos NFC (draw refunded)

64%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volos NFC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volos NFC attack 1.43 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + Volos NFC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volos NFC scores more

47%

level

27%

Levadiakos scores more

26%

Volos NFC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volos NFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Añor

Volos NFC · F

7.6

Match Events

12'

40'

42'

45'

55'

56'

56'

61'

62'

62'

62'

K. Verris← P. Simelidis

64'

L. Bernadou← J. de Kamps

64'

J. Assehnoun← F. Ferrari

72'

T. Tsokanis← M. Comba

72'

F. Pedrozo← G. Balzi

76'

S. Katsikas← G. Migas

76'

S. Skrabb← Nacho Gil

83'

J. Romo← Zine

90+2'

Joel Abu Hanna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VolosLevadiakos

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots3

6Corners1

21Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots3

4On Target1

1Off Target2

3Blocked0

6Inside Box1

2Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

257Total Passes537

193Accurate Passes461

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls19

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1