Volos NFC 1–2 Atromitos: Result & Stats

Volos NFC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atromitos

1/7/2024

Super League 1 · Round 17Panthessaliko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Volos NFC37%

×Draw27%

Atromitos36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volos NFCExpected goals in this matchAtromitos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.25

Volos NFC

1.26

Atromitos

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 130 away

1.10

creates per match

1.08

1.42

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Volos NFC

1.10

Atromitos

1.08

allows per match

Volos NFC

1.42

Atromitos

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volos NFC+0.00on par

Atromitos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volos NFC ↓

Atromitos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Volos NFC or draw

64%

Volos NFC or Atromitos

73%

Draw or Atromitos

63%

Winning margin

Volos NFC wins by 2+

16%

Atromitos wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Volos NFC 1+ goals

72%

Volos NFC 2+ goals

36%

Volos NFC 3+ goals

13%

Atromitos 1+ goals

71%

Atromitos 2+ goals

36%

Atromitos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Volos NFC (draw refunded)

50%

Atromitos (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volos NFC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volos NFC attack 1.10 + Atromitos defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atromitos attack 1.08 + Volos NFC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volos NFC scores more

37%

level

27%

Atromitos scores more

36%

Volos NFC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Volos NFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff