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Völkermarkt vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
FT
4 – 3
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
10/31/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 15Lilienberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Völkermarkt56%
×Draw21%
St. Michael Bleiburg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völkermarkt
2.12
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.28

Völkermarkt creates 66% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 31 away

creates per match

Völkermarkt
2.20
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Völkermarkt
1.40
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw
77%
Völkermarkt or St. Michael Bleiburg
79%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
44%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+
34%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals
88%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
62%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
35%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
72%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
37%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
71%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 2.20 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.12

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Völkermarkt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Völkermarkt scores more
56%
level
21%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
23%

Völkermarkt at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Völkermarkt 4–3 St. Michael Bleiburg

Völkermarkt beat St. Michael Bleiburg 4-3 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Lilienberg-Arena in Völkermarkt.