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Völkermarkt vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
CANC
21:00
Kraig
Kraig
6/7/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 29Lilienberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Völkermarkt59%
×Draw20%
Kraig21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völkermarkt
2.20
Kraig
1.23

Völkermarkt creates 79% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 63 away

creates per match

Völkermarkt
2.20
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Völkermarkt
1.40
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw
79%
Völkermarkt or Kraig
80%
Draw or Kraig
41%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+
37%
Kraig wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals
89%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
64%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
37%
Kraig 1+ goals
71%
Kraig 2+ goals
35%
Kraig 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
74%
Kraig (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 2.20 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kraig attack 1.06 + Völkermarkt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Völkermarkt scores more
59%
level
20%
Kraig scores more
21%

Völkermarkt at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Völkermarkt vs Kraig — Match Preview

Völkermarkt face Kraig on June 7, 2020 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Völkermarkt host Kraig at Lilienberg-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.