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Volgar Astrakhan vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
Preview
15:00
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
7/26/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 2Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
38%
Volgar Astrakhan
model favours
38%31%30%

Volgar Astrakhan score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan38%
×Draw31%
Mashuk-KMV30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.05
Mashuk-KMV
0.90

Volgar Astrakhan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.04
Mashuk-KMV
1.17

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.63
Mashuk-KMV
1.06

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
70%
Volgar Astrakhan or Mashuk-KMV
69%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
62%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
15%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
65%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
28%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
9%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
59%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
23%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
56%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.17 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
38%
level
31%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
30%

Volgar Astrakhan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mashuk-KMV score first in only 30% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Volgar Astrakhan 2 vs Mashuk-KMV 4
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Volgar Astrakhan’s matches
  • Volgar Astrakhan win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Astrakhan
DWWWL
Mashuk-KMV
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volgar Astrakhan face Mashuk-KMV (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)

Second League A - Fall Season Gold returns with Volgar Astrakhan hosting Mashuk-KMV. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volgar Astrakhan host Mashuk-KMV at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.