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Volga Ulyanovsk vs KAMAZ — First League 2024

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
Preview
15:00
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
4/17/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Trud Stadium
Big match
37%
KAMAZ
model favours
33%30%37%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk33%
×Draw30%
KAMAZ37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.01
KAMAZ
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 44 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.91
KAMAZ
0.75

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
KAMAZ
1.11

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
63%
Volga Ulyanovsk or KAMAZ
70%
Draw or KAMAZ
67%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
12%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
64%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
66%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
30%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
47%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.91 + KAMAZ defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

KAMAZ attack 0.75 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
33%
level
30%
KAMAZ scores more
37%

KAMAZ at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL
KAMAZ
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volga Ulyanovsk vs KAMAZ — Match Preview

Volga Ulyanovsk face KAMAZ on April 17, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Volga Ulyanovsk host KAMAZ at Trud Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.