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Volga Ulyanovsk vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
4/10/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Trud Stadium
40%
FC Sochi
model favours
32%28%40%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk32%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.10
FC Sochi
1.27

FC Sochi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.38
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
68%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
13%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
67%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
30%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
10%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
72%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
36%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
44%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.88 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
32%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
40%

FC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volga Ulyanovsk face FC Sochi (First League)

First League returns with Volga Ulyanovsk hosting FC Sochi. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volga Ulyanovsk host FC Sochi at Trud Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.