Volendam II vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 47+ matches
Volendam II30%
Katwijk48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Katwijk creates 30% more chances
Season form · 47 home / 98 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Volendam II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Volendam II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches
Katwijk away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.34 · 98 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Volendam II attack 1.55 + Katwijk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45
Katwijk attack 1.76 + Volendam II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Katwijk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Quick Boys
De Treffers
Hoek
Rijnsburgse Boys
HHC
SpakenburgKatwijk
Almere City II
Sparta Rotterdam II
Kozakken Boys
Ijsselmeervogels
AFC Amsterdam
Barendrecht
RKAV Volendam
GVVV Veenendaal
Excelsior Maassluis
Koninklijke HFC
ACV
Rijnvogels
ADO '20
Groningen U21
DVS 33 Ermelo
Vvsb
FC Lisse
Sparta NijkerkIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Volendam II host Katwijk on Saturday, 11 January 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the Tweede Divisie 2019/2020 season.
Volendam II 2 – 3 Katwijk
Katwijk beat Volendam II 3-2 in Tweede Divisie on January 11, 2020.
Goals: K. van Gasteren (25'), B. Plat (31'), M. Mengerink (74' pen, 85', 89').
The match was played at Kras Stadion (Volendam).