Vojvodina 0–0 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

Vojvodina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

12/16/2018

Super Liga · Round 21Stadion Karađorđe (Novi Sad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Vojvodina52%

×Draw25%

Proleter Novi SAD22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VojvodinaExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.92

Vojvodina

1.56

Proleter Novi SAD

0.92

Vojvodina creates 70% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 72 away

1.57

creates per match

0.81

1.02

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vojvodina

1.57

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

allows per match

Vojvodina

1.02

Proleter Novi SAD

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw

78%

Vojvodina or Proleter Novi SAD

75%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

48%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+

27%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals

79%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

46%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

21%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

60%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

23%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

70%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vojvodina scores more

52%

level

25%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

22%

Vojvodina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff