Voitsberg vs TuS Heiligenkreuz

Voitsberg

CANC

00:00

TuS Heiligenkreuz

4/3/2020

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Sparkassen-Arena Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Voitsberg67%

×Draw18%

TuS Heiligenkreuz15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoitsbergExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.10

Voitsberg

2.47

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.10

Voitsberg creates 125% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 72 away

2.84

creates per match

1.49

0.72

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Voitsberg

2.84

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Voitsberg

0.72

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw

85%

Voitsberg or TuS Heiligenkreuz

82%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

33%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+

45%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals

91%

Voitsberg 2+ goals

70%

Voitsberg 3+ goals

44%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

67%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

30%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)

81%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.72 · 43 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 2.84 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.47

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Voitsberg defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Voitsberg scores more

67%

level

18%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

15%

Voitsberg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff