Vodice 3–1 Zmaj Makarska: Result & Stats

Vodice

FT

3 – 1

Zmaj Makarska

10/3/2020

Third NL - Jug · South - 8Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vodice61%

×Draw21%

Zmaj Makarska18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VodiceExpected goals in this matchZmaj Makarska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.99

Vodice

2.02

Zmaj Makarska

0.99

Vodice creates 104% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

1.83

creates per match

0.64

1.34

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Vodice

1.83

Zmaj Makarska

0.64

allows per match

Vodice

1.34

Zmaj Makarska

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Zmaj Makarska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vodice or draw

82%

Vodice or Zmaj Makarska

79%

Draw or Zmaj Makarska

39%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+

37%

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals

87%

Vodice 2+ goals

60%

Vodice 3+ goals

33%

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

63%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

26%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)

77%

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vodice scores more

61%

level

21%

Zmaj Makarska scores more

18%

Vodice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff