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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
12/10/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 16Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër47%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Tirana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.36
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 46% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.42
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
0.92
Dinamo Tirana
1.30

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw
74%
Vllaznia Shkodër or Dinamo Tirana
72%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
53%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
74%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
39%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
61%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
24%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
47%
level
28%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
26%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Vllaznia Shkodër 3–1 Dinamo Tirana

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Dinamo Tirana 3-1 in Superliga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.