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Vizela U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 — League #1041 2026

Vizela U19
Vizela U19
Preview
15:00
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
10/31/2026League #1041League #1041 · Round 10
50%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
model favours
29%21%50%

Vizela U19 and Vitoria Guimaraes U19 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vizela U1929%
×Draw21%
Vitoria Guimaraes U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela U19
1.57
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
2.10

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vizela U19
1.15
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
1.67

allows per match

Vizela U19
2.54
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
2.00

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par
Vitoria Guimaraes U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw
50%
Vizela U19 or Vitoria Guimaraes U19
79%
Draw or Vitoria Guimaraes U19
71%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+
14%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals
79%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
46%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
21%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 1+ goals
88%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2+ goals
62%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.15 + Vitoria Guimaraes U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 attack 1.67 + Vizela U19 defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vizela U19 scores more
29%
level
21%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 scores more
50%

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
DWLLD
U19
DD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vizela U19 face Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (League #1041)

League #1041 returns with Vizela U19 hosting Vitoria Guimaraes U19. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.