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Vizela U19 vs Feirense U19 — League #1041 2026

Vizela U19
Vizela U19
Preview
15:00
Feirense U19
Feirense U19
12/20/2026League #1041League #1041 · Round 16
53%
Feirense U19
model favours
26%21%53%

Vizela U19 and Feirense U19 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vizela U1926%
×Draw21%
Feirense U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela U19
1.40
Feirense U19
2.08

Feirense U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vizela U19
1.50
Feirense U19
1.50

allows per match

Vizela U19
2.67
Feirense U19
1.30

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par
Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw
47%
Vizela U19 or Feirense U19
79%
Draw or Feirense U19
74%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+
11%
Feirense U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals
75%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
41%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
17%
Feirense U19 1+ goals
87%
Feirense U19 2+ goals
61%
Feirense U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Feirense U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.50 + Feirense U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Feirense U19 attack 1.50 + Vizela U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vizela U19 scores more
26%
level
21%
Feirense U19 scores more
53%

Feirense U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Feirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
W
U19
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vizela U19 vs Feirense U19 — Match Preview

Vizela U19 face Feirense U19 on December 20, 2026 in this League #1041 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.