Vittsjö W 1–2 Linköping W: Result & Stats

Vittsjö W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Linköping W

J. Rantala 13'

O. Ahtinen 84'

M. De Jongh 58'

9/19/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Vittsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vittsjö W36%

×Draw24%

Linköping W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vittsjö WExpected goals in this matchLinköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.54

Vittsjö W

1.47

Linköping W

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.24

1.85

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Vittsjö W

1.17

Linköping W

1.24

allows per match

Vittsjö W

1.85

Linköping W

1.77

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.03on par

Linköping W-0.44scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Linköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw

61%

Vittsjö W or Linköping W

76%

Draw or Linköping W

64%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

17%

Linköping W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

77%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

43%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

18%

Linköping W 1+ goals

79%

Linköping W 2+ goals

45%

Linköping W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

48%

Linköping W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 5 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.17 + Linköping W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Linköping W attack 1.24 + Vittsjö W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vittsjö W scores more

36%

level

24%

Linköping W scores more

39%

Linköping W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

13'

29'

58'

68'

C. Kapocs← T. Simonsson

82'

H. Ekengren← L. Sällström

84'

J. Svedberg← M. De Jongh

84'

O. Ahtinen

88'

K. Adamek← S. Stratigakis

Vittsjö

Linköping

1

5

17

6

29

22

⚽

Ahtinen

18

⚽

▼

Jongh

14

Vangsgaar

16

Ellingsen

9

▼

21

13

4

9

22

2

16

10

▼

Stratigak

8

⚽

Rantala

15

Persson

18

▼

Sällström

6

Markstedt

Manager: T. Mårtensson

82'▲H. Ekengren←▼L. Sällström

88'▲K. Adamek←▼S. Stratigakis

Vittsjö W substitutes

20Ekengren17Adamek1Lynn7Nyberg11Karlsson19Karlsson23Lind

Manager: A. Jeglertz

68'▲C. Kapocs←▼T. Simonsson

84'▲J. Svedberg←▼M. De Jongh

Linköping W substitutes

23Kapocs8Svedberg2Bülow13Koivunen12Özdemir20Aldén

Match Recap: Vittsjö W vs Linköping W

Linköping W beat Vittsjö W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on September 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Rantala (13'), M. De Jongh (58'), O. Ahtinen (84').

The match was played at Vittsjö IP in Vittsjö.

Vittsjö W vs Linköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vittsjö W vs Linköping W