Vittsjö W vs Eskilstuna United W

Vittsjö W

Preview

11:00

Eskilstuna United W

10/3/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 21Vittsjo

Big match

44%

Vittsjö W

model favours

44%27%30%

Vittsjö W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Vittsjö W44%

×Draw27%

Eskilstuna United W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vittsjö WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Vittsjö W

1.40

Eskilstuna United W

1.10

Vittsjö W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 40 away

1.48

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Vittsjö W

1.48

Eskilstuna United W

1.07

allows per match

Vittsjö W

1.14

Eskilstuna United W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw

70%

Vittsjö W or Eskilstuna United W

73%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

56%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

21%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

75%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

41%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

17%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

67%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

30%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

60%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.48 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.07 + Vittsjö W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vittsjö W scores more

44%

level

27%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

30%

Vittsjö W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vittsjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Vittsjö W score first in only 27% of matches
Vittsjö W have scored in 9 games running
Both teams score in 82% of Vittsjö W’s matches
Vittsjö W win just 22% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

DWDLW

W

LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff