Vitoria 2–2 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Vitoria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

ABC

S. Tréllez 36' (pen), 5'

Erick Varão 56'

Fábio Lima 10'

7/31/2022

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vitoria46%

×Draw31%

ABC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.70

Vitoria

1.15

ABC

0.70

Vitoria creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

1.15

creates per match

0.77

0.62

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Vitoria

1.15

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Vitoria

0.62

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

78%

Vitoria or ABC

69%

Draw or ABC

54%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

20%

ABC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

68%

Vitoria 2+ goals

32%

Vitoria 3+ goals

11%

ABC 1+ goals

50%

ABC 2+ goals

16%

ABC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

67%

ABC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.15 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

ABC attack 0.77 + Vitoria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vitoria scores more

46%

level

31%

ABC scores more

22%

Vitoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

10'

18'

33'

33'

36'

S. TréllezPenalty

45'

Eduardo

46'

Thiaguinho← Alan Pedro

46'

Wallyson← Wesley Pionteck

56'

56'

58'

61'

67'

Alisson Santos← Luidy

67'

Gustavo França← Fábio Lima

76'

Dinei← S. Tréllez

76'

Gabriel Honório← Eduardo

80'

Zé Vitor← Léo Gomes

80'

Geovani← Henan

80'

Guilherme Nunes← Erick Varão

Vitoria

ABC

▼

⚽

▼

Varão

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Tréllez

▼

Luidy

Manager: João Burse

46'▲Thiaguinho←▼Alan Pedro

67'▲Alisson Santos←▼Luidy

76'▲Dinei←▼S. Tréllez

76'▲Gabriel Honório←▼Eduardo

80'▲Zé Vitor←▼Léo Gomes

Vitoria substitutes

ThiaguinhoSantosDineiHonórioVitorBoltPáscoaSantiagoPedroRobertoSanchezSena

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

46'▲Wallyson←▼Wesley Pionteck

56'▲Walfrido←▼Wellington

67'▲Gustavo França←▼Fábio Lima

80'▲Geovani←▼Henan

80'▲Guilherme Nunes←▼Erick Varão

ABC substitutes

WallysonWalfridoFrançaGeovaniNunesNogueiraAlanJefinhoRusch

Serie C: Vitoria 2–2 ABC

Vitoria and ABC drew 2-2 in Serie C on July 31, 2022.

Goals: S. Tréllez (5', 36' pen), Fábio Lima (10'), Erick Varão (56').

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, Bahia.

Vitoria vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Vitoria 2–2 ABC