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Vitoria U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vitoria U17
Vitoria U17
Preview
20:00
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
9/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 18
43%
Fortaleza U17
model favours
31%26%43%

Fortaleza U17 score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vitoria U1731%
×Draw26%
Fortaleza U1743%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria U17
1.16
Fortaleza U17
1.42

Fortaleza U17 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vitoria U17
0.25
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

Vitoria U17
2.00
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

Vitoria U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vitoria U17 or draw
57%
Vitoria U17 or Fortaleza U17
74%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
69%

Winning margin

Vitoria U17 wins by 2+
12%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vitoria U17 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria U17 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria U17 3+ goals
11%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
76%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
41%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)
42%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria U17 attack 0.25 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vitoria U17 scores more
31%
level
26%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
43%

Fortaleza U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vitoria U17 and Fortaleza U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLLLL
U17
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vitoria U17 host Fortaleza U17

September 22, 2026: Vitoria U17 take on Fortaleza U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.