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Vitoria U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vitoria U17
Vitoria U17
Preview
20:00
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
8/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 13
58%
Cruzeiro U17
model favours
20%21%58%

Cruzeiro U17 have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vitoria U1720%
×Draw21%
Cruzeiro U1758%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria U17
1.13
Cruzeiro U17
2.05

Cruzeiro U17 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Vitoria U17
0.25
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Vitoria U17
2.00
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Vitoria U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vitoria U17 or draw
42%
Vitoria U17 or Cruzeiro U17
79%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
80%

Winning margin

Vitoria U17 wins by 2+
8%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Vitoria U17 1+ goals
68%
Vitoria U17 2+ goals
31%
Vitoria U17 3+ goals
11%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
87%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
61%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)
26%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria U17 attack 0.25 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vitoria U17 scores more
20%
level
21%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
58%

Cruzeiro U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cruzeiro U17 score first in only 21% of matches
  • Vitoria U17 sit 15, Cruzeiro U17 4 in the table
  • Vitoria U17 and Cruzeiro U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLLLL
U17
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vitoria U17 face Cruzeiro U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Vitoria U17 hosting Cruzeiro U17. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.