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Vita Club vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
1 – 1
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
10/23/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Vita Club54%
×Draw29%
Groupe Bazano17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.32
Groupe Bazano
0.60

Vita Club creates 120% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 73 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
83%
Vita Club or Groupe Bazano
71%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
46%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
26%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
73%
Vita Club 2+ goals
38%
Vita Club 3+ goals
15%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
45%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
12%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
76%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vita Club scores more
54%
level
29%
Groupe Bazano scores more
17%

Vita Club at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vita Club 1 – 1 Groupe Bazano

Vita Club and Groupe Bazano drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.