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Vis Kosova vs Gradina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gradina
Gradina
5/14/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Vis Kosova50%
×Draw26%
Gradina24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.52
Gradina
0.98

Vis Kosova creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
Gradina
0.85

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
Gradina
1.54

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
Gradina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Gradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
76%
Vis Kosova or Gradina
74%
Draw or Gradina
50%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
25%
Gradina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
78%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
45%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
20%
Gradina 1+ goals
62%
Gradina 2+ goals
26%
Gradina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
67%
Gradina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Gradina away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Gradina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gradina attack 0.85 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
50%
level
26%
Gradina scores more
24%

Vis Kosova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Kosova vs Gradina

Gradina beat Vis Kosova 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Maglaj in Maglaj.