Virtus 1–2 Murata: Result & Stats | Coppa Titano

Virtus

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Murata

J. Apezteguía 83' (pen)

A. Cangini 59' (pen)

M. Bernardi 13'

9/29/2021

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Virtus53%

×Draw26%

Murata21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VirtusExpected goals in this matchMurata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

Virtus

1.52

Murata

0.85

Virtus creates 79% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.92

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Virtus

1.92

Murata

0.88

allows per match

Virtus

0.83

Murata

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus+0.00on par

Murata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus ↓

Murata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus or draw

79%

Virtus or Murata

74%

Draw or Murata

47%

Winning margin

Virtus wins by 2+

27%

Murata wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Virtus 1+ goals

78%

Virtus 2+ goals

45%

Virtus 3+ goals

20%

Murata 1+ goals

57%

Murata 2+ goals

21%

Murata 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Virtus (draw refunded)

72%

Murata (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Murata away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus attack 1.92 + Murata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Murata attack 0.88 + Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Virtus scores more

53%

level

26%

Murata scores more

21%

Virtus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Bernardi

58'

N. Castiglioni

58'

N. Castiglioni

59'

A. CanginiPenalty

62'

F. Magri← R. Baiardi

62'

L. Focaccia← O. Tadzhybayev

78'

A. Indelicato← A. Comuniello

83'

J. ApezteguíaPenalty

85'

N. Alberigi← A. Toccaceli

Virtus

Murata

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Bizzotto

62'▲F. Magri←▼R. Baiardi

62'▲L. Focaccia←▼O. Tadzhybayev

Virtus substitutes

MagriFocacciaSempriniMuggeoBattistiniRaiolaRinaldi

Manager: A. Fabbri

78'▲A. Indelicato←▼A. Comuniello

85'▲N. Alberigi←▼A. Toccaceli

Murata substitutes

IndelicatoAlberigiBabboniPoppiVitaioliNanniCastelgrande

Coppa Titano: Virtus 1–2 Murata

Murata beat Virtus 2-1 in Coppa Titano on September 29, 2021.

Goals: M. Bernardi (13'), A. Cangini (59' pen), J. Apezteguía (83' pen).

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.

Virtus vs Murata — Coppa Titano 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coppa Titano: Virtus 1–2 Murata