Virtus Verona 0–0 Padova: Result & Stats

Virtus Verona

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Padova

12/18/2021

League #138 · Girone A - 19Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Virtus Verona28%

×Draw36%

Padova36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus VeronaExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

0.85

Virtus Verona

0.72

Padova

0.85

Padova creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

0.71

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Virtus Verona

0.71

Padova

0.82

allows per match

Virtus Verona

0.88

Padova

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Verona+0.00on par

Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Verona ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–118%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Virtus Verona or draw

64%

Virtus Verona or Padova

64%

Draw or Padova

72%

Winning margin

Virtus Verona wins by 2+

8%

Padova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Virtus Verona 1+ goals

51%

Virtus Verona 2+ goals

16%

Virtus Verona 3+ goals

4%

Padova 1+ goals

57%

Padova 2+ goals

21%

Padova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Virtus Verona (draw refunded)

44%

Padova (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Verona at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Padova away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Verona attack 0.71 + Padova defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Padova attack 0.82 + Virtus Verona defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Virtus Verona scores more

28%

level

36%

Padova scores more

36%

Padova at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

26'

30'

32'

39'

53'

53'

Felipe Curcio← N. Kirwan

53'

C. Chiricò← U. Germano

58'

61'

63'

64'

67'

R. Arma← F. Pittarello

67'

A. Nalini← D. Danti

70'

A. Nalini

75'

F. Nicastro← F. Ceravolo

75'

A. Settembrini← S. Hraiech

83'

F. Mazzolo← D. Zugaro

83'

N. Danieli← A. Metlika

83'

S. Tronchin← E. Hallfreðsson

90+2'

N. Danieli

Virtus

Padova

22

Donnarumm

6

Pelagatti

8

▼

29

4

11

5

18

▼

Hraiech

26

▼

Kirwan

13

▼

Cissé

24

▼

1

6

17

25

▼

Zugaro

16

▼

4

23

14

24

▼

Metlika

10

▼

Danti

11

▼

Pittarell

Manager: L. Fresco

67'▲R. Arma←▼F. Pittarello

67'▲A. Nalini←▼D. Danti

83'▲F. Mazzolo←▼D. Zugaro

83'▲N. Danieli←▼A. Metlika

83'▲S. Tronchin←▼E. Hallfreðsson

Virtus Verona substitutes

9Arma31Nalini3Mazzolo7Danieli18Tronchin5Munaretti13Priore15Vesentini21Pinto22Sibi27Faedo32Marchi

Manager: M. Pavanel

53'▲Felipe Curcio←▼N. Kirwan

53'▲C. Chiricò←▼U. Germano

61'▲T. Biasci←▼K. Cissé

75'▲F. Nicastro←▼F. Ceravolo

75'▲A. Settembrini←▼S. Hraiech

Padova substitutes

27Curcio32Chiricò9Biasci20Nicastro21Settembrini1Vannucchi14Vasic15Ajeti17Terrani19Anđelković28Bifulco35Cabianca

League #138: Virtus Verona 0–0 Padova

Virtus Verona and Padova drew 0-0 in League #138 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini in Verona.

Virtus Verona vs Padova — League #138 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #138: Virtus Verona 0–0 Padova