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Vipers vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kitara
Kitara
12/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vipers59%
×Draw24%
Kitara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.72
Kitara
0.80

Vipers creates 115% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 57 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
Kitara
1.40

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
83%
Vipers or Kitara
76%
Draw or Kitara
41%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
33%
Kitara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
82%
Vipers 2+ goals
51%
Vipers 3+ goals
25%
Kitara 1+ goals
55%
Kitara 2+ goals
19%
Kitara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
78%
Kitara (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kitara attack 1.11 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vipers scores more
59%
level
24%
Kitara scores more
17%

Vipers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vipers 2–1 Kitara

Vipers beat Kitara 2-1 in Premier League on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.