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Vipers vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
2 – 0
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
3/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vipers63%
×Draw23%
Bright Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.73
Bright Stars
0.68

Vipers creates 154% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
86%
Vipers or Bright Stars
77%
Draw or Bright Stars
37%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
36%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
82%
Vipers 2+ goals
52%
Vipers 3+ goals
25%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
49%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
15%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
81%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vipers scores more
63%
level
23%
Bright Stars scores more
14%

Vipers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vipers 2–0 Bright Stars

Vipers beat Bright Stars 2-0 in Premier League on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.