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Vipava vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Vipava
Vipava
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
4/24/20273. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 22
40%
Adria
model favours
33%27%40%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vipava33%
×Draw27%
Adria40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipava
1.17
Adria
1.33

Adria creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vipava
1.13
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Vipava
1.22
Adria
1.22

finishing

Vipava+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipava ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vipava or draw
60%
Vipava or Adria
73%
Draw or Adria
67%

Winning margin

Vipava wins by 2+
13%
Adria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vipava 1+ goals
69%
Vipava 2+ goals
33%
Vipava 3+ goals
11%
Adria 1+ goals
74%
Adria 2+ goals
38%
Adria 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vipava (draw refunded)
45%
Adria (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipava at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipava attack 1.13 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Adria attack 1.44 + Vipava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vipava scores more
33%
level
27%
Adria scores more
40%

Adria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Vipava
DDWLD
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vipava vs Adria — Match Preview

Vipava face Adria on April 24, 2027 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.