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Vimenor vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tropezón
Tropezón
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Vimenor41%
×Draw26%
Tropezón33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
1.44
Tropezón
1.25

Vimenor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 94 away

creates per match

Vimenor
1.78
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Vimenor
0.95
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
67%
Vimenor or Tropezón
74%
Draw or Tropezón
59%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
20%
Tropezón wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
76%
Vimenor 2+ goals
42%
Vimenor 3+ goals
18%
Tropezón 1+ goals
71%
Tropezón 2+ goals
36%
Tropezón 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
56%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vimenor scores more
41%
level
26%
Tropezón scores more
33%

Vimenor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vimenor vs Tropezón

Tropezón beat Vimenor 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.